Monthly Forecast Runs

Rulebased Simulation Model runs are created each month from January through May (or later during high snowpack years) based on National Resources Conservation Service and National Weather Service (NRCS/NWS) coordinated forecasts. Final Annual Operating Plan (AOP) runs are typically based off the April or May forecast. Note that the results are forecasts developed to help predict operations based on forecasted hydrology, but actual inflows to the river are difficult to predict exactly and actual flows and storage levels could thus be quite different on a daily basis. Forecast is represented by a range of values with specific probabilities of occurrence. The middle of the range is expressed by the 50% exceedance probability forecasts. Smaller values would be 90% and 70% exceedance probability and larger values would be 30% and 10% exceedance probability. The May 1, 2024 streamflow forecast used in the May, 2024 AOP Model run can be viewed by following this link:    May 1, 2024 NRCS/NWS Forecast

Following is a link to the Excel file showing plots of observed and forecast modeled results (based on the most current forecast) for Reservoir Operations (storage, inflow, and outflow) and selected stream gage locations.    Current AOP Data Plots