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Water Operations ModelMonthly Forecast RunsWater Operations Model runs are created each month based on National Resources Conservation Service and National Weather Service (NRCS/NWS) coordinated forecasts (Jan-May 50% forecasts). Final Annual Operating Plan (AOP) runs are typically based off the April or May forecast. Model runs prior to the final AOP run should be considered as preliminary information. Note that the results are forecasts developed to help predict operations based on forecasted hydrology, but actual inflows to the river are difficult to predict exactly and actual flows and storage levels could thus be quite different on a daily basis. Following are links to the current year monthly model run results, posted in Excel files with canned plots of the reservoirs and some stream gages: Current Year AOP Model Run Previous Year AOP Model RunThe Water Operations Model developed using the May 2009 fifty percent runoff forecast can be accessed through the link below along with the ruleset used with this model (Refer to the Sample Planning Model page for instructions for obtaining a RiverWare Viewer for viewing the model). A PDF file with the corresponding resulting forecasted flows and reservoir storage levels is also posted below. Note that the results are forecasts developed to help predict operations based on forecasted hydrology, but actual inflows to the river are difficult to predict exactly and actual flows and storage levels could thus be quite different on a daily basis. Some recent model development that has been incorporated in the sample Planning Model has not yet been incorporated into the Water Operations Model. Most notably, the sample Planning Model includes the Middle Valley Upgrade discussed further on the Recent Activities page. Comparison of Forecast to Observed Results for AOP RunFollowing is a link to the PDF file showing plots of observed vs. modeled results (based on the April 2010 - 50% NRCS forecast) for Reservoir Operations (storage, inflow, and outflow) and selected streamgage locations. |
